Week 4 June 19-23
No major holidays
NZD milk prices
730am AUD somebody speaks in some panel somewher)e
9am CNY somebody speaks somewhere out there
930am AUD June rates minutes released
315pm USD someone speaks
330pm Carney speaks somewhere
445pm CHF another person speaks somewhere
236pm Kuroda speaks somewhere
5am NZD rates (credit https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/interest-rate)
- The trade-weighted exchange rate has fallen by around 5 percent since February, partly in response to global developments and reduced interest rate differentials. This is encouraging and, if sustained, will help to rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector. (But has risen quite strongly since then)
- Developments since the February Monetary Policy Statement on balance are considered to be neutral for the stance of monetary policy.
- Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.
2am MXN rates expected to raise again!
- Recently raised again to its highest
- Noted inflation about 6%
830am CAD CPI
That’s alot of people talking over the next week with only 2 interest rate announcements scheduled: NZD and MXN. Now NZD is interesting. Ever since its previous statement, the NZD has rallied pretty strongly, which is exactly what the central bank doesn’t like. So where will the so called “smart money” be this week? Shorting the NZD? I don’t know. All I know is, I prefer not to short the NZD as it is expensive to pay the interest.
The great Mexican Peso, which I hardly trade, but is super to go long because of its now expected 7% interest rate. Well, I consider it a risky currency, although some traders I know absolutely love trading it short term. For me, the spreads are bad, and it’s expensive to buy, so even with a 7% interest, I don’t find it value for money. We shall see. Check out my post on how I trade like an “intelligent investor” Ala Warren Buffett to understand what I mean.
Other than that I don’t see anything interesting than people opening their mouths. Now analysts list these as high importance because they are looking for hints to predict stuff. But as a Smart Casual Trader, I know you cannot predict anything. So to me, I don’t really bother. Besides, by the time what they say is published, someone else would have already had an edge against you by having either inside information first, or having it heard first (remember, analysts are paid to listen and analyze such stuff and come to some kind of prediction or analysis to send to their bosses).
What edge do you have against them if you also depend on the same information. No, your edge is that you are not distracted, nor biased, by what you hear, but what you see in the market price action.