Weekly Trading Update: 24th-28th July

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PS: Apologies for the screaming toddler in the background in the middle of the video. But he’s fine now. 🙂

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Weekly Trading Plan: July 3rd to 7th

Forgive my disappearing face. I realized it was blocking the text do I removed it.

Information credit to daily FX and trading economics.

Disclaimer: This is an opinion piece. And not financial advice. Forex trading carries significant risk (which is maageable). And you know the rest.

Weekly Trading Plan: 26th to 30th June

Week 4: June 26th-30th

No major holidays

 

Monday

ECB Forum with the big shots

830pm USD durable goods orders

11pm ECB Youth forum? Whhha?

 

Tuesday

6pm Carney speaks

10pm USD consumer confidence

 

Wednesday

1am Yawn Yellen speaks

830pm USD Advance goods trades balance

930 CAD guy speaks at ECB panel

 

Thursday

750am lots of JPY numbers

8pm: EUR German CPI

830pm USD GDP, USD Core personal consumption expenditure, initial jobless claims

 

Friday

730am JPY CPI

9am CNY PMI

355pm EUR German employment numbers

5pm: EUR Eurozone CPI

830pm CAD GDP, USD personal spending, USD personal consumption expenditure core

 

My Thoughts:

Seems like a quiet week but quite a lot of important numbers that may influence monetary policy in July, such as the CPI, GDP, employment and personal consumption numbers. Other than that, besides reading the news which I don’t, I don’t see any major upsets.

At the moment I’ve closed all my positions and have no drawdown, which is good. So it’s starting from a clean slate, and I’m looking forward to next week to see what may come.

Have a good weekend!

How will the 38 Oxley Road saga affect the SGD?

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Image credit: The Straits Times

Before we start a little discussion about this topic, let’s have a look at how the SGD has been performing against the benchmark USD for since the public revelations by Ms Lee Wei Ling.

sgd

Image credit OANDA. Vertical yellow line showing date of release of news.

Ok. Truth be told on that day, when she put that attention grabbing picture questioning the values of the PM, I didn’t bother reading it. But everyone seemed so interested in the “dirty linen”, people started liking people’s Facebook profiles whom they didn’t give 2 cents over before this, and it wasn’t before long memes started sprouting all over, including one very ingenious call for anti-pink dotters to stand up against the enemies of the victim who happens to favour pink T shirts on TV.

So ok. What was my trading plan for Tuesday:

plan

That was all.

I don’t trade the SGD. The Smart Casual Trader does not trade the SGD. Why? Because I trade Smart: The SGD is controlled by the MAS and how they control the currency is something I don’t understand, nor trust. Also, the spreads on the SGD are lousy. And the SGD is somewhat pegged to a basket of currencies which is not known (at least, I’m not smart enough to know), and it’s smart not to trade pegged currencies.


So this brings back to the question: Will it have any effect on the SGD? Well, even if I were trading the SGD for whatever reason, I wouldn’t be too bothered, even if it could have led to the weird rise in the SGD in a single day as shown in the graph above. On hindsight we see that the USDSGD regained the loss and is kind of back to business as usual.

That’s because the Smart Casual Trader does not trade the news. Sure, there are strategies around that teach you how to trade through important announcements and news, but that’s not the Smart Casual way. Let me explain why:

  1. News is exaggerated to catch your attention. News is essentially click-bait. Journalists are encouraged to write in strong languages, webpages designed to catch and hold your attention, to induce fear, anger, euphoria, all emotions which have no place in Smart Casual Trading.
  2. By the time you read the news, think about how many hands it has passed through before reaching you: Think about insider information, bought information, hacked information, and let’s just put all that aside, and think about the journalist who first hears it while you were sleeping, drafts it, passes to the editor, and publishes it ASAP.  In fact, the usual practice is to have pre-written pieces ready to be published in the fight to be the first to get the news “right”.  You think the news cares about you? Think again.
  3.  Live conferences you say? Ok, then you’ll need to pay for a special service to feed you the live conference, you’ll need to compete against a bunch of huddled experts and analysts all ready to decipher the news (with their own biases), form your own decision, at the same time watch the market reacting to the news and fighting your own emotions and biases etc etc….

Ok after just writing the above I got bored of explaining why I don’t read the news nor rely on the news for trade decisions. I only rely on market action because that’s what gets me the money, not the news. It’s my actions and decisions on the market movements that gets me profit, not the news. And in my experience, the market pretty much reacts faster before you can even switch to the right channel to watch the news.

So back to the original question: Will the Oxley Road saga affect the SGD?

Sorry, don’t look at me. I profited through Brexit, the USD elections, the French Elections which I didn’t even know was happening, the recent shock GBP movements due to who knows what because I look at price action above all else. That’s my edge against everyone else who is trying to predict or interpret something from news, which has passed through many many dirty, biased hands, with the intent to make you worried, excited, and emotional.

I don’t trade the SGD and don’t care much about it as a Smart Casual Trader. So sorry. I have no opinion on this matter.

No comment. (And some people reaaaaaly need to keep their comments to themselves)

See you on my Facebook Page!

 

Weekly Trading Plan June 19th-23rd

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All info credit to DailyFx’s Economic calender and Trading Economics

Week 4 June 19-23

 

No major holidays

 

Monday

NZD milk prices

730am AUD somebody speaks in some panel somewher)e

 

Tuesday

9am CNY somebody speaks somewhere out there

930am AUD June rates minutes released

315pm USD someone speaks

330pm Carney speaks somewhere

445pm CHF another person speaks somewhere

 

Wednesday

236pm Kuroda speaks somewhere

 

Thursday

5am NZD rates (credit https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/interest-rate)

 

  • The trade-weighted exchange rate has fallen by around 5 percent since February, partly in response to global developments and reduced interest rate differentials. This is encouraging and, if sustained, will help to rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector. (But has risen quite strongly since then)
  • Developments since the February Monetary Policy Statement on balance are considered to be neutral for the stance of monetary policy.
  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.

 

 

Friday

2am MXN rates expected to raise again!

 

  • Recently raised again to its highest
  • Noted inflation about 6%

 

 

830am CAD CPI

My thoughts

That’s alot of people talking over the next week with only 2 interest rate announcements scheduled: NZD and MXN. Now NZD is interesting.  Ever since its previous statement, the NZD has rallied pretty strongly, which is exactly what the central bank doesn’t like. So where will the so called “smart money” be this week? Shorting the NZD? I don’t know. All I know is, I prefer not to short the NZD as it is expensive to pay the interest.

The great Mexican Peso, which I hardly trade, but is super to go long because of its now expected 7% interest rate. Well, I consider it a risky currency, although some traders I know absolutely love trading it short term. For me, the spreads are bad, and it’s expensive to buy, so even with a 7% interest, I don’t find it value for money. We shall see. Check out my post on how I trade like an “intelligent investor” Ala Warren Buffett to understand what I mean.

Other than that I don’t see anything interesting than people opening their mouths. Now analysts list these as high importance because they are looking for hints to predict stuff. But as a Smart Casual Trader, I know you cannot predict anything. So to me, I don’t really bother. Besides, by the time what they say is published, someone else would have already had an edge against you by having either inside information first, or having it heard first (remember, analysts are paid to listen and analyze such stuff and come to some kind of prediction or analysis to send to their bosses).

What edge do you have against them if you also depend on the same information. No, your edge is that you are not distracted, nor biased, by what you hear, but what you see in the market price action.

Happy trading!