Weekly Trading Plan 12th-16th June

kepp calm

Hi everyone, here’s next week’s event list that I will be paying attention.

June 12th-16th

Monday

No major bank holidays

Tuesday

4:30pm GBP CPI

5pm: EUR ZEW survey

Wednesday

2pm EUR German CPI

830pm USD CPI

Thursday

2am FOMC Prev 1% exp 1.25%

    • Another increase in the federal funds rate would be appropriate soon, proven that recent growth slowdown is only transitory, minutes from last FOMC meeting showed. Fed officials also discussed strategies to start reducing its USD 4.5 trillion portfolio.

 

  • Most participants judged that if economic information came in about in line with their expectations, it would soon be appropriate for the Committee to take another step in removing some policy accommodation.
  • Expected to hike to 1.25%

 

645am NZD GDP

930am AUD employment numbers

330pm CHF rates

    • The Swiss National Bank held its deposit interest rate at a record low of -0.75 percent on March 16th, as widely expected, saying the franc is still significantly overvalued and the current expansionary monetary policy is aimed at stabilizing price developments and supporting economic activity. Meanwhile, the central bank raised inflation forecasts for 2017 to 0.3 percent from 0.1 percent previously estimated; and for 2018 cut to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent.

 

  • The Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued. The negative interest rate and the SNB’s willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market are intended to make Swiss franc investments less attractive, thereby easing pressure on the currency.
  • Credit: https://tradingeconomics.com/

 

7pm GBP BOE rates

Friday

4am Carney speaks

230 Kuroda speaks

5pm EUR EUROZONE CPI

My thoughts:

It’s going to be a blockbuster week for the GBPUSD next week. I sense that the GBP is still in an undecided state following political stuff (I still don’t know what exactly went on but I just trade as per normal).

The CHF has ALWAYS been re-iterating their stance that the CHF has been overvalued and have never minced their words in being willing to intervene. For beginners, I would avoid the CHF. Anyway, I also don’t trade it much, because of its high risk, it’s expensive to trade.

There is an expected USD rate hike and most likely this is going to happen, despite the USD under performing the past week. And since it is expected, expect the unexpected. That’s when things get exciting.

So that’s my 2 cents on next week. I stick to my rules, my strategy, and manage along. I don’t do much analysis, I just note the timings of important events especially bank rate announcements and changes, but I see them more as opportunities than threats.

As above, keep calm, and carry on.

James

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