June Week 1: 5th to 9th
10pm USD ISM services+ other USD numbers
1230pm AUD rates prev 1.5% exp 1.5%
- “The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates. Lenders have announced increases in mortgage rates, particularly those paid by investors and on interest-only loans. The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom.”
- “An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.”
- Daily charts show a downtrend but mostly ranging long term
930am AUD GDP
750am Lots of JPY numbers
145pm CHF employment numbers
315pm CHF CPI (noted, no longer in negative territory)
745pm EUR Rates prev 0% exp 0%
- “At the same time, the point was made that it could be acknowledged that recourse to these options for providing further accommodation was becoming less likely, in line with the Governing Council’s evolving assessment.”
830pm Draghi press conference
830pm USD initial jobless claims
930am CNY CPI
830pm CAD employment numbers
The focus would be on the EUR mostly and the AUD. There are geopolitical influences which, I dont really care about. I didn’t even know the French elections were happening until the sudden gap up in the EUR. And, I still managed to trade as usual. Ok let’s look at how the EUR is doing then:
The EUR on the daily looks pretty bullish, crossing the EMA200 trendline. The fundamentals from the central bank statements, as well as the overall confidence in the Eurozone following political issues involving Trump and Theresa May facing headwinds and criticisms may be driving the EURO as a “safe asset”. I will be watching for chances to retrace this bullish sentiment through the week, as I am a contrarian trader.
Ok how about the AUD:
There does’t seem to be any clear direction for the AUD on the daily chart, but I did make a good trade going long on the AUDJPY on a retracement move. I can’t tell much from this chart, for the long term at least.
Other than the above, I don’t see much that will jolt the market. Note, I am not including, nor interested, in geopolitical events. Because, that’s how I trade. There are many ways to analyse the markets, and predict based on upcoming events etc. But all I am interested in is in price action.
I would be paying more attention to the EUR particularly. Draghi’s words during his press conferences carry alot of weight since his boo-boo last year, when he was critisized for giving false impressions. (Bah, victim bashing by the media…) That led to huge spikes in the EURO over a few minutes when he started talking. Now, the ECB has always reminded us that they will be making sure their communication is clearer.
So that’s all I see for next week. If you wish to join my email list, where I share actual trade setups and updates on the markets, and my important “Thursday Trade Update” emails where I share with the email group when and how I usually place my trades, let me know.
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